National Hydroelectric Power Corporation, commonly known as NHPC, was listed on the NSE on 1 September 2009 at a price of ₹32.40. In the last 5 years, it has given a massive return of more than 300%. Will NHPC continue to provide such impressive returns in the future as well? In this article, we will explore the NHPC’s growth potential and NHPC share price target from 2025 to 2050.
About NHPC
NHPC Ltd. is a public-sector company that generates electricity from hydropower projects. It was established in 1975 and is owned by the government of India. The NHPC constructs and operates dams and power plants to generate clean energy from rivers. NHPC plays an important role in generating clean energy by using the water resources of the country. Over the years, NHPC has expanded its work to include wind and solar power projects as well.
NHPC Business Model
- Power Generation Business:
NHPC generates electricity, mainly through hydropower projects. It builds, operates, and maintains large hydroelectric power plants across India. The electricity generated is sold to state electricity boards and power distribution companies on long-term contracts, ensuring a consistent and trustworthy income. As of 2023, NHPC has a total installed capacity of 7,071.2 megawatts across 24 power plants, including two joint ventures. - Consultancy and Project Management Services:
NHPC provides project management, construction contracts, and consulting services to other companies and government agencies on hydroelectric and renewable energy projects.
NHPC Fundamental Analysis
| Stock Name | NHPC Ltd. |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | ₹ 87,151 Cr. |
| 52W High | ₹ 118 |
| 52W Low | ₹ 71 |
| Stock P/E (TTM) | 32 |
| Book Value | ₹ 40.0 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.20 % |
| ROCE | 7.67 % |
| ROE | 9.61 % |
| Face Value | ₹ 10.0 |
| Cash Reserves | ₹ 30,104 Cr. |
| Fixed Assets | ₹ 21,286 Cr. |
| Capital Works in Progress | ₹ 44,386 Cr. |
Key Factors Driving NHPC Growth
1. Government Push for Renewable Energy: The Indian government is promoting clean and renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions. The government’s goal of increasing renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 includes a significant role for hydropower. NHPC, which accounts for 15% of India’s total hydropower generating capacity, will benefit from this push through new projects and expansion opportunities in the renewable energy sector.
2. Expansion of Power Generation Capacity: NHPC aims to increase its total capacity to 16,285 MW by 2032, which is a 2.5 times increase from its current capacity. This expansion will increase electricity generation capacity and boost the company’s revenue over time.
3. Diversification into Solar and Wind Energy:
To reduce dependency on hydropower, NHPC is investing in solar and wind energy projects. This diversification enables NHPC to expand into other renewable energy sectors, increasing its revenue potential.
4. Financial Performance and Investor Confidence: NHPC’s consistent financial performance has led to a 250% total shareholder return over the past five years, reflecting strong investor confidence. The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27% over the next three years, indicating strong financial health and growth prospects.
5. International Collaboration: NHPC is developing hydropower projects in neighbouring countries that extend its operations beyond India. This international collaboration allows NHPC to expand its geographical reach and revenue sources.
| Shareholders | March 2023 | March 2024 | March 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 70.95% | 67.40% | 67.40% |
| FIIs | 7.37% | 6.80% | 8.81% |
| DIIs | 14.20% | 11.31% | 10.62% |
| Government | 1.71% | 1.28% | 1.13% |
| Public | 5.77% | 13.22% | 12.05% |
| No. of Shareholders | 8,35,504 | 33,35,566 | 39,90,215 |
Pros of NHPC
- Increase in Institutional Confidence: DIIs have increased their holding from 10.04% in December 2024 to 10.62% in March 2025, while FIIs have increased their holding from 8.77% in December 2024 to 8.80% in March 2025, indicating a strong institutional confidence in the company’s future growth prospects.
Cons of NHPC
- Poor Sales Growth – NHPC has delivered a poor sales growth of 1% over the last 5 years.
- Poor Profit Growth – NHPC’s profit has grown at a CAGR of just 2% over the last 3 years, showing weak earnings growth over time.
- Low Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): NHPC’s 5-year average ROCE is 7.99%, which shows that NHPC is not using its capital efficiently to generate profits.
NHPC may benefit from India’s push for clean energy and favourable government policies. In the normal case, the stock can reach around ₹118. In a bear case, it may stay near ₹100, while in a bull case, NHPC’s share price could go up to ₹150 by the end of 2025.
According to our analysis, its share price would be between ₹100 to ₹150 in 2025.
| NHPC Share Price Target 2025 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| 1st Target | 100 |
| 2nd Target | 118 |
| 3rd Target | 150 |
The government’s goal of increasing renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 is expected to influence NHPC’s share price target. If NHPC plays a significant role in meeting the government’s renewable energy targets, our analysis suggests that NHPC’s share price could reach ₹400 by 2030.
| NHPC Share Price Target 2030 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| 1st Target | 250 |
| 2nd Target | 300 |
| 3rd Target | 400 |
As clean energy demand grows, NHPC may hit ₹720 in the normal case. Bear case could be ₹550, and bull case may go up to ₹850 by 2035.
| NHPC Share Price Target 2035 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| 1st Target | 550 |
| 2nd Target | 720 |
| 3rd Target | 850 |
By 2040, NHPC is expected to achieve significant milestones in renewable energy diversification and cross-border project development. Based on this forecast, NHPC’s share price is projected to be around ₹1,500 by 2040. In the bear case, it may be ₹1,200, while in the bull case, it might cross ₹1,800.
According to our analysis, NHPC’s share price would be between ₹1200 to ₹1800 in 2040.
| NHPC Share Price Target 2040 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| 1st Target | 1200 |
| 2nd Target | 1500 |
| 3rd Target | 1800 |
By 2050, if NHPC takes advantage of India’s vision for energy includes large-scale renewable expansion, enhanced hydropower capacity, and a stronger focus on sustainability, NHPC’s stock price may reach ₹3,200 in a normal case by 2050. The bear case could be ₹2,500, and in the bull case, its stock price may go up to ₹4,000, as per our analysis.
| NHPC Share Price Target 2050 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| 1st Target | 2500 |
| 2nd Target | 3200 |
| 3rd Target | 4000 |
| Years | Target Price |
|---|---|
| NHPC Share Price Target 2025 | ₹100 to ₹150 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2026 | ₹120 to ₹190 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2027 | ₹145 to ₹250 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2028 | ₹170 to ₹320 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2029 | ₹210 to ₹360 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2030 | ₹250 to ₹400 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2035 | ₹550 to ₹850 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2040 | ₹1200 to ₹1800 |
| NHPC Share Price Target 2050 | ₹2500 to ₹4000 |
Conclusion
The future of NHPC appears bright, thanks to its strong position in India’s renewable energy sector and ongoing expansion into hydropower and solar projects. As demand for clean energy rises, NHPC is well positioned to benefit. While share price targets are speculative, NHPC remains a good long-term investment due to its consistent growth and strategic initiatives in renewable energy.
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only. It is not a stock recommendation and should not be treated as such. Please ask your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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