National Fertilizer Ltd. (NFL) was listed on the NSE on December 28, 2006. In the last five years, its stock has given a massive return of more than 280%. Will the NFL continue to provide such great returns in the future as well? Let’s explore the NFL’s growth potential and the NFL share price target 2025 to 2050 in this article.
About NFL
National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) was established in 1974. It is a central public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Government of India. NFL is India’s second-largest producer of urea, with an installed capacity of 35.68 lakh metric tonnes per annum across its five gas-based urea plants located at Nangal, Bathinda, Panipat, Vijaipur-I, and Vijaipur-II. The company also manufactures and markets a range of industrial products, such as ammonia, nitric acid, and ammonium nitrate, and agricultural products like bio-fertilizers and soil health products.
NFL Business Model
- Fertilizer Manufacturing: National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) is a leading public sector fertilizer company in India, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of nitrogenous fertilizers, especially urea. It also produces other fertilizers, such as bio-fertilizers and bentonite sulfur.
- Trading and Agrochemical Distribution: NFL has diversified into the trading of non-urea fertilizers like DAP, MOP, and NPK, as well as agrochemicals and certified seeds. Through a wide distribution network of dealers and retailers, the company caters to farmers across India.
- Industrial Products: Apart from fertilizers, NFL also supplies industrial chemicals such as nitric acid, sodium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate to various sectors, including explosives, dyes, and pharmaceuticals.
NFL Fundamental Analysis
| Stock Name | National Fertilizer Ltd. |
|---|---|
| NSE Symbol | NFL |
| Market Cap | ₹ 4950 Cr. |
| 52W High | ₹ 170 |
| 52W Low | ₹ 70.9 |
| Stock P/E | 26.9 |
| Book Value | ₹ 55.4 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.27 % |
| ROCE | 7.70 % |
| ROE | 6.98 % |
| Face Value | ₹ 10.0 |
| Industry PE | 30.3 |
| Price to book value | 1.82 |
| Debt to equity | 0.74 |
| PEG Ratio | -21.4 |
| Quick ratio | 0.82 |
| Shareholders | March 2023 | March 2024 | March 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 74.71% | 74.71% | 74.71% |
| FIIs | 0.54% | 0.48% | 0.60% |
| DIIs | 12.40% | 8.38% | 6.83% |
| Public | 12.36% | 16.43% | 17.85% |
| No. of Shareholders | 1,12,985 | 2,34,201 | 3,10,563 |
Key Factors Driving NFL Future Growth
- Government Support for Agriculture and Fertilizer Subsidies: National Fertilizers Limited benefits significantly from government initiatives aimed at ensuring food security and improving agricultural productivity. Continued support through fertilizer subsidies, especially under the Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme, ensures consistent demand for NFL’s products among farmers.
- Capacity Expansion and Energy Efficiency Upgrades: The NFL is investing in modernizing its plants and enhancing operational efficiency. Projects such as the installation of energy-efficient ammonia and urea production units, as well as improved feedstock management (including a shift to natural gas), aim to increase capacity while lowering production costs.
- Rising Demand for Crop Nutrition Products: As India’s population grows and the government pushes for higher agricultural yields, the demand for urea, bio-fertilizers, and customised nutrient products is expected to increase, which will directly and indirectly benefit National Fertilizers Limited.
- Diversification into Non-Urea Segments: To reduce dependence on urea, NFL is gradually expanding its footprint in non-urea fertilizers like DAP, MOP, NPKs, and customized fertilizers. This diversification improves margins and aligns with long-term sustainability goals.
Pros of NFL
- Strong Profit Growth: NFL profits have grown at a CAGR of 57% over the last three years.
- Low P/B Ratio (Undervalued Stock): NFL Price to Book Value (P/B) ratio is 1.82, which shows that its stock is trading close to its intrinsic value and may be undervalued.
- Increase in FIIs Holding: DIIs holding increased from 0.42% in December 2024 to 0.60% in March 2025, showing a positive outlook towards NFL by the FIIs.
Cons of NFL
- Low Return on Equity (ROE): NFL’s 5-year average ROE is 7.94%, which shows that NFL is not using shareholders’ funds efficiently to generate profits.
- Low Return on Capital Employed (ROCE): NFL’s 5-year average ROCE is 8.11%, which shows that NFL is not using its capital efficiently to generate profits.
- Decrease in DIIs Holding: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have reduced their holding to 6.83% in March 2025 from 7.28% in December 2024, indicating a decline in FII’s confidence in the company’s future growth prospects.
NFL Balance Sheet
| Particulars | March 2023 | March 2024 | March 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity Capital | 491 | 491 | 491 |
| Reserves | 2,051 | 2,064 | 2,225 |
| Borrowings | 3,993 | 4,091 | 2,001 |
| Other Liabilities | 6,002 | 4,563 | 4,594 |
| Total Liabilities | 12,536 | 11,208 | 9,311 |
| Fixed Assets | 3,969 | 3,831 | 3,694 |
| CWIP | 178 | 242 | 172 |
| Investments | 259 | 345 | 443 |
| Other Assets | 8,131 | 6,791 | 5,002 |
| Total Assets | 12,536 | 11,208 | 9,311 |
By the end of 2025, the NFL share price is expected to be around ₹125 in normal conditions. In a bear market, it might be ₹110, and in a bull market, it may go up to ₹160.
| NFL Share Price Target 2025 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 110 |
| Normal Market | 125 |
| Bull Market | 160 |
In 2026, the NFL share price is expected to be around ₹155 in a normal situation. In a bear market, it might be ₹120, and in a bull market, it may cross ₹215.
| Tata Steel Share Price Target 2026 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 120 |
| Normal Market | 155 |
| Bull Market | 215 |
According to our analysis, the NFL share price is expected to be around ₹180 in 2027. In a bear market, it might be ₹135, and in a bull market, it may cross ₹270.
| NFL Share Price Target 2027 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 135 |
| Normal Market | 180 |
| Bull Market | 270 |
According to our analysis, the NFL share price may trade near ₹220 by 2028; bearish conditions could pull it down to ₹150, while a strong bull run might lift it to ₹350.
| NFL Share Price Target 2028 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 150 |
| Normal Market | 220 |
| Bull Market | 350 |
Under normal conditions, the NFL share price might hit ₹265 by 2029. A bearish trend could lower it to ₹170, whereas a bullish surge could raise it to ₹450.
| NFL Share Price Target 2029 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 170 |
| Normal Market | 265 |
| Bull Market | 450 |
In a normal situation, the NFL share price is projected to be approximately ₹320 in 2030. In a bear market, the value may be as low as ₹190, while in a bull market, it may rise to ₹600.
| NFL Share Price Target 2030 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 190 |
| Normal Market | 320 |
| Bull Market | 600 |
By 2035, the NFL share price is projected to be around ₹650 under normal conditions. In adverse markets, the price could fall to ₹300, while favorable conditions might push it up to ₹1800.
| NFL Share Price Target 2035 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 300 |
| Normal Market | 650 |
| Bull Market | 1800 |
Under normal conditions, the NFL share price might hit ₹1500 by 2040. A bearish trend could lower it to ₹500, whereas a bullish surge could raise it to ₹4500.
| NFL Share Price Target 2040 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 500 |
| Normal Market | 1500 |
| Bull Market | 4500 |
In 2050, the NFL share price is expected to be around ₹6000 in a normal situation. In a bear market, it might be ₹1500, and in a bull market, it may go up to ₹25,000.
| NFL Share Price Target 2050 | Rupees (₹) |
|---|---|
| Bear Market | 1500 |
| Normal Market | 6000 |
| Bull Market | 25000 |
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes only. It is not a stock recommendation and should not be treated as such. Please ask your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Also Read: GAIL Share Price Target 2025 to 2050
